WTO: World Trade Gains Momentum in Q1 Facing Tariff Challenges

The volume of global merchandise trade recorded strong growth in the first quarter in anticipation of the first tariff hikes announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, according to the latest data released by the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Specifically, the volume of world merchandise trade grew by 3.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by a notable increase in imports into North America in anticipation of the U.S. tariff hike.

However, although merchandise trade volume growth in the first quarter exceeded the WTO’s most recent forecasts, the organization’s economists expect the pace of expansion to slow further as fully replenished inventories and higher tariffs affect import demand.

The WTO anticipates a slowing pace for the rest of the year

Last April, the WTO projected world merchandise trade volume growth of 2.7% by 2025 if policies in place at the beginning of 2025 continued, but anticipates a contraction of 0.2% taking into account announcements up to last April 16.

Since then, the WTO stresses that various trade agreements and measures have slightly altered the adjusted forecast, although in mid-June merchandise trade growth for the full year was expected to be broadly flat at 0.1%.

Significant disparities were also observed between regions in merchandise trade volume growth in the first quarter, especially in imports.

North America recorded by far the strongestquarter-on-quarter import growth of all regions at 13.4%, followed by Africa at 5.1%, South America, Central America and the Caribbean at 3.6%, the Middle East at 3%, Europe at 1.3% and Asia at 1.1%.

In terms of exports, the Middle East recorded the highest quarter-on-quarter growth, with 6.3%, followed by Asia with 5.6%, South America with 3.2%, Africa with 2.5%, Europe with 1.9% and North America with 1.8%.