China’s Historic Leap: Trade Surplus Exceeds $1 Trillion for the First Time

China has strengthened its position as the world’s leading exporter and, despite the tariff war with the United States, has already surpassed the trillion dollar trade surplus. In the first eleven months of the year, the Asian giant recorded $1.076 trillion in goods exports, up 21.7%. Last year, the figure was just under a trillion.

Exports rose by 5.9% in November compared to the same period last year, offsetting the decline in October. Imports, meanwhile, were up 1.9%, with a monthly surplus of $112 billion, according to the country’s customs administration.

Despite these numbers, exports to the United States have progressively plummeted in recent months, showing a 29% drop in November, compared to the same period last year. Chinese exports to the U.S. have fallen by almost one-fifth since the tariffs came into force.

Experts point to a “re-export” of products from China to the United States

However, shipments to other regions, especially Southeast Asia, but also Mexico and Africa have grown strongly. According to the Financial Times, this abnormal growth in exports to Southeast Asia could hide a “re-export” of products to the United States, with the aim of dodging trade tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration. The experts consulted affirm that US demand has remained stable while China indirectly benefits from these re-exports.

China continues to rely on foreign trade at a time of profound weakness in domestic demand and its currency, the renminbi, which continues to lose value by leaps and bounds. Not only with the United States: in November, exports to the European Union increased by 14.8%, following 0.9% growth in October. China sells to the European Union more than twice as much as it buys from it.

In this context, French President Emmanuel Macron has already called the trade imbalance “unbearable” and warned that France is also considering applying U.S.-style tariffs.

According to the latest Morgan Stanley report, China will increase to 16.5% of global exports by 2030, especially based on electric vehicles, batteries and robotics in general.